Reading Group

“Statistics Communication and (in)numeracy” reading group

In this reading group we focus on literature on the wide topic of statistics communication and (in)numeracy. At each meeting, two participants present a scientific article on the topic. The focus is on the research methods and the important findings. Other participants can read these papers as a preparation, but this is not mandatory.

Join! If you would like to join the reading group, please contact me via s.j.w.willems@fsw.leidenuniv.nl.

During the spring semester of 2023-2024, meetings will take place online via MS Teams on the first Monday of the month, 13.00-14.00h.

Meetings:

Date:

Speakers and literature:

July 1st, 2024

Ionica Smeets [slides]: 
S. Zhang et al., An illusion of predictability in scientific results: Even experts confuse inferential uncertainty and outcome variability. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 120, e2302491120 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.230249112 
Nina Leach:
Bannister, H. J., Blackwell, P. G., Hyder, K., & Webb, T. J. (2021). Improving the visual communication of Environmental Model Projections. Scientific Reports, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98290-4

June 3rd, 2024

Edwin de Jonge:
Cancelled
Astrid Martens:
Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., O’Reilly, J. L., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Fox-Kemper, B., ... & Xiao, C. (2023). Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users. Nature climate change, 13(7), 648-660.

May 6th, 2024

Sara Sprinkhuizen [slides]:
Zikmund-Fisher BJ, Witteman HO, Dickson M, et al. Blocks, Ovals, or People? Icon Type Affects Risk Perceptions and Recall of Pictographs. Medical Decision Making. 2014;34(4):443-453. doi:10.1177/0272989X13511706 
Martine Jansen [slides]:
Felgendreff, L., Siegers, R., Otten, L. et al. Infographics on risks associated with COVID-19 and the willingness to get the AstraZeneca vaccine: two randomized online experiments. BMC Public Health 24, 529 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18057-0

April 8th, 2024

Note: not 1st Monday of the month due to Easter break on April 1st

Nina Leach: Cancelled
Bannister, H. J., Blackwell, P. G., Hyder, K., & Webb, T. J. (2021). Improving the visual communication of Environmental Model Projections. Scientific Reports, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98290-4
Filip de Blois: 

Piero Morseletto, Analysing the influence of visualisations in global environmental governance (2017) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901116309479

March 4th, 2024

Sanne Willems [slides]:
Hullman J, Resnick P, Adar E (2015) Hypothetical Outcome Plots Outperform Error Bars and Violin Plots for Inferences about Reliability of Variable Ordering. PLOS ONE 10(11): e0142444. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142444 
Eefje de Louw [slides]:
Padilla LMK, Powell M, Kay M and Hullman J (2021) Uncertain About Uncertainty: How Qualitative Expressions of Forecaster Confidence Impact Decision-Making With Uncertainty Visualizations. Front. Psychol. 11:579267. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.579267 

February 5th, 2024
Rosa Fabbricatore: 
Juanchich M, Gourdon-Kanhukamwe A, Sirota M. “I am uncertain” vs “It is uncertain”. How linguistic markers of the uncertainty source affect uncertainty communication. Judgment and Decision Making. 2017;12(5):445-465. doi:10.1017/S1930297500006483 
Ruben Vromans:
Kerr, J., van der Bles, A. M., Dryhurst, S., Schneider, C. R., Chopurian, V., Freeman, A. L., & Van Der Linden, S. (2023). The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust. Royal Society Open Science, 10(11), 230604. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230604

January 8th, 2024

Note: not first Monday of the month
Reinoud Stoel [slides]: 

A. Preston and K. -L. Ma, "Communicating Uncertainty and Risk in Air Quality Maps," in IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, vol. 29, no. 9, pp. 3746-3757, 1 Sept. 2023, doi: 10.1109/TVCG.2022.3171443
Saar Hommes:
Benevento, S.V. Communicating Climate Change Risk to Children: A Thematic Analysis of Children’s Literature. Early Childhood Educ J 51, 201–210 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10643-021-01294-y 

December 4th, 2023

Martine Jansen:
Pepper & Prytulak (1974)
Sometimes frequently means seldom: Context effects in the interpretation of quantitative expressions
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/009265667490049X?via%3Dihub 
Ionica Smeets [slides]:
Beukeboom, C. J., van der Meer, J., & Burgers, C. (2023). When “Sometimes” Means “Often”: How Stereotypes Affect Interpretations of Quantitative Expressions. Journal of Language and Social Psychology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X231212883 

November 6th, 2023

Edwin de Jonge:
Boy, Jeremy, et al. "A principled way of assessing visualization literacy." IEEE transactions on visualization and computer graphics 20.12 (2014): 1963-1972.
Winnifred Wijnker:
Kennedy, H., Weber, W., & Engebretsen, M. (2020). Data visualization and transparency in the news. In: Engebretsen, M. & Kennedy, H. (Eds.) Data visualization in society, p. 169-185. Amsterdam University press.
https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/22273/9789048543137.pdf?sequence=1#page=170

Septebmer 25th, 2023

Note: not first Monday of the month
Ruben Vromans:
Joslyn, S., & LeClerc, J. (2013). Decisions with uncertainty: The glass half full. Current directions in psychological science, 22(4), 308-315.
Sanne Willems:
Tak, S., Toet, A., & van Erp, J. (2015). Public Understanding of Visual Representations of Uncertainty in Temperature Forecasts. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, 9(3), 241–262. https://doi.org/10.1177/1555343415591275

July 5th, 2023

Ionica Smeets [slides]:
Causal and Associational Language in Observational Health Research: A Systematic Evaluation https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35925053/ 
Reinoud Stoel [slides]: 
Communicating uncertainty about the link between COVID-19 and bats: the indirect effects on attitudes toward bats in the United States https://doi.org/10.1080/10871209.2023.2167022 

June 7th, 2023

Martine Jansen [slides]:
Li, N., Brossard, D., Scheufele, D. A., Wilson, P. H. and Rose, K. M. (2018). Communicating data: interactive infographics, scientific data and credibility JCOM 17(02), A06. https://doi.org/10.22323/2.17020206
Edwin de Jonge:

Béland, A., Daudens, F., & Hurtut, T. (2023). Waffster: Hierarchical waffle charts for budget visualization. Information Visualization, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/14738716231173730 

May 3rd, 2023

Rosa Fabbricatore: 

Holtgraves, T., & Perdew, A. (2016). Politeness and the communication of uncertainty. Cognition, 154, 1-10.
Elisca Mastenbroek: 
Sirota, M. & Juanchich, M. (2012). To what extent do politeness expectations shape risk perception? Even numerical probabilities are under their spell! Acta Psychologica, 141 (3), 391-399.

April 5th, 2023

Saar Hommes:
Bonafide, C.P., Roberts, K.E., Weirich, C.M., Paciotti, B., Tibbetts, K.M., Keren, R., Barg, F.K. and Holmes, J.H. (2013), Beyond statistical prediction: qualitative evaluation of the mechanisms by which pediatric early warning scores impact patient safety. J. Hosp. Med., 8: 248-253. https://doi.org/10.1002/jhm.2026
Nynke Krol:
Ancker JS, Chan C, Kukafka R. Interactive graphics for expressing health risks: development and qualitative evaluation. J Health Commun. 2009 Jul-Aug;14(5):461-75. doi: 10.1080/10810730903032960

March 1st, 2023

Lude Rozema [slides]:

Witteman HO, Zikmund-Fisher BJ, Waters EA, Gavaruzzi T, Fagerlin A. Risk estimates from an online risk calculator are more believable and recalled better when expressed as integers. J Med Internet Res. 2011 Sep 7;13(3):e54. doi: 10.2196/jmir.1656.
Ruben Vromans:
Zikmund-Fisher BJ. The right tool is what they need, not what we have: a taxonomy of appropriate levels of precision in patient risk communication. Med Care Res Rev. 2013 Feb;70(1 Suppl):37S-49S. doi: 10.1177/1077558712458541

February 1st,
2023
Winnifred Wijnker:
Bateman, S., R. Mandryk, C. Gutwin, A. Genest, D. McDine, and C. Brooks. 2010. “Useful Junk? The Effects of Visual Embellishment on Comprehension and Memorability of Charts.” ACM Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, 2573–82. doi:10.1145/1753326.1753716.
Sanne Willems:
Haroz, S., Kosara, R., & Franconeri, S. L. (2015b). ISOTYPE visualization: Working memory, performance, and engagement with pictographs. In CHI ’15: Proceedings of the 33rd Annual ACM Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (pp. 1191–1200). Association for Computing Machinery. https://doi.org/10.1145/2702123.2702275
December 19th, 2022
Laura Verbeek:
John R Kerr, Claudia R Schneider, Alexandra L J Freeman, Theresa Marteau, Sander van der Linden, Transparent communication of evidence does not undermine public trust in evidence, PNAS Nexus, 2022;, pgac280, https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac280 
Daniël Vos:
Alcaraz Martínez, R., Turró, M.R. & Granollers Saltiveri, T. Methodology for heuristic evaluation of the accessibility of statistical charts for people with low vision and color vision deficiency. Univ Access Inf Soc 21, 863–894 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10209-021-00816-0 

December 5th, 2022

Ionica Smeets [slides]:
Trusting the Facts: The Role of Framing, News Media as a (Trusted) Source, and Opinion Resonance for Perceived Truth in  Statistical Statements
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/10776990221117117 
Martine Jansen [slides]:
Persson E., Andersson D., Koppel L., Västfjäll D., Tinghög G.A preregistered replication of motivated numeracy, Cognition, 214 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104768

November 21st,
2022

Sara Sprinkhuizen [slides]:
Szafir, D. A., Haroz, S., Gleicher, M., & Franconeri, S. (2016). Four types of ensemble coding in data visualizations. Journal of Vision, 16(5):11, 1–22, doi:10.1167/16.5.11
Edwin de Jonge: 
Two graphs walk into a bar: Readout-based measurement reveals the Bar-Tip Limit error, a common, categorical misinterpretation of mean bar graphs, Journal of Vision November 2021, Vol.21, 17, doi:https://doi.org/10.1167/jov.21.12.17 

November 7th, 2022

Rosa Fabbricatore: 
Han, P. K., Klein, W. M., Killam, B., Lehman, T., Massett, H., & Freedman, A. N. (2012). Representing randomness in the communication of individualized cancer risk estimates: effects on cancer risk perceptions, worry, and subjective uncertainty about risk. Patient education and counseling, 86(1), 106-113. doi: 10.1016/j.pec.2011.01.033 
Casper Albers: 
D.A.C. Vos & C.J. Albers, Different approaches to visualising trends using Covid-19 data: a study comparing cumulative line graphs with non-cumulative line graphs. (traineeship report)

October 24th, 2022

Holiday

October 10th, 2022

Saar Hommes: 

Riaz Qureshi, Xiwei Chen, Carsten Goerg, Evan Mayo-Wilson, Stephanie Dickinson, Lilian Golzarri-Arroyo, Hwanhee Hong, Rachel Phillips, Victoria Cornelius, Mara Mc Adams DeMarco, Eliseo Guallar, Tianjing Li, Comparing the Value of Data Visualization Methods for Communicating Harms in Clinical Trials, Epidemiologic Reviews, 2022; mxac005 https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxac005 
Nynke Krol [slides]: 
Shah, P., & Carpenter, P. A. (1995). Conceptual limitations in comprehending line graphs. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 124(1), 43–61. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-3445.124.1.43

September 26th, 2022

Reinoud Stoel: 
Kevin A. Hallgren, Connor J. McCabe, Kevin M. King, David C. Atkins. Beyond path diagrams: Enhancing applied structural equation modeling research through data visualization. Addictive Behaviors, Volume 94, 2019, Pages 74-82.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2018.08.030.
Ruben Vromans [slides]:
van der Velden, N.C.A., van Laarhoven, H.W.M., Burgers, S.A. et al. Characteristics of patients with advanced cancer preferring not to know prognosis: a multicenter survey study. BMC Cancer 22, 941 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-022-09911-8 

September 12th, 2022

Anna Henschel [slides]:
Riedel, N., Schulz, R., Kazezian, V., & Weissgerber, T. (2022). Replacing bar graphs of continuous data with more informative graphics: are we making progress?. Clinical Science, 136(15), 1139-1156. https://doi.org/10.1042/CS20220287
Sanne Willems [slides]:
Kay, M., Kola, T., Hullman, J. R., & Munson, S. A. (2016, May). When (ish) is my bus? user-centered visualizations of uncertainty in everyday, mobile predictive systems. In Proceedings of the 2016 chi conference on human factors in computing systems (pp. 5092-5103). https://doi.org/10.1145/2858036.2858558 

Summer break

June 20th, 2022

Edwin de Jonge: 
Graphical Prediction & Discrete Visualizations Improve Recall & Estimation of Effect Uncertainty, Jessica Hullman, Matthew Kay, Yea-Seul Kim, and Samana Shrestha, IEEE transactions on visualisation  and computer graphics, vol 24, no 1, January 2018, 1077-2626
Rosa Fabbricatore:
Okan, Y., Janssen, E., Galesic, M., & Waters, E. A. (2019). Using the short graph literacy scale to predict precursors of health behavior change. Medical Decision Making, 39(3), 183-195.

June 6th, 2022

No meeting; national holiday

May 23rd, 2022

Edwin de Jonge: 
TBA
Rosa Fabbricatore:
Okan, Y., Janssen, E., Galesic, M., & Waters, E. A. (2019). Using the short graph literacy scale to predict precursors of health behavior change. Medical Decision Making, 39(3), 183-195.

May 9th, 2022
Casper Albers: 
Firat EE, Joshi A, Laramee RS. Interactive visualization literacy: The state-of-the-art. Information Visualization. March 2022. doi:10.1177/14738716221081831
Ionica Smeets:
Kosara R, Rhyne TM. More Than Meets the Eye: A Closer Look at Encodings in Visualization. IEEE Comput Graph Appl. 2022 Mar-Apr;42(2):110-114. doi: 10.1109/MCG.2021.3138608

April 25th,
2022

Martine Jansen: [slides]
Kanjanabose, R., Abdul-Rahman, A. and Chen, M. (2015), A Multi-task Comparative Study on Scatter Plots and Parallel Coordinates Plots. Computer Graphics Forum, 34: 261-270. https://doi.org/10.1111/cgf.12638
Anne Marthe van der Bles:

TBA

April 11th,
2022

Winnifred Wijnker:
TBA

Saar Hommes:
Collins PJ, Renedo A, Marston CA. Communicating and understanding pain: Limitations of pain scales for patients with sickle cell disorder and other painful conditions. Journal of Health Psychology. 2022;27(1):103-118. doi:10.1177/1359105320944987

March 28th,
2022

Nynke Krol:
Justine T. Kaoa, Jean Y. Wub, Leon Bergen, and Noah D. Goodman (2014) Nonliteral understanding of number words. PNAS, 111 (33), 12002-12007. 
https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1407479111 
Ruben Vromans:
Recchia, G., Lawrence, A. C., & Freeman, A. L. (2022). Investigating the presentation of uncertainty in an icon array: A randomized trial. PEC Innovation, 1, 100003. 

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecinn.2021.100003


March 14th,
2022

Reinoud Stoel:
Martire, K. ., Kemp, R. ., Sayle, M., & Newell, B. . (2014). On the interpretation of likelihood ratios in forensic science evidence: Presentation formats and the weak evidence effect. Forensic Science International, 240, 61–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2014.04.005
Sanne Willems: [slides]
Waters, E. A., Maki, J., Liu, Y., Ackermann, N., Carter, C. R., Dart, H., … Colditz, G. A. (2021). Risk Ladder, Table, or Bulleted List? Identifying Formats That Effectively Communicate Personalized Risk and Risk Reduction Information for Multiple Diseases. Medical Decision Making, 41(1), 74–88. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X20968070

February 28th,
2022
March 7th, 2022

Rosa Fabbricatore: [slides]
Ali, N., & Peebles, D. (2013). The effect of gestalt laws of perceptual organization on the comprehension of three-variable bar and line graphs. Human factors, 55(1), 183-203.
Laura Verbeek: 
von Roten, F. C., & de Roten, Y. (2013). Statistics in science and in society: From a state-of-the-art to a new research agenda. Public Understanding of Science, 22(7), 768-784. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0963662513495769 

February 14th,
2022
Cancelled

February 1st,
2022



Winnifred Wijnker: [slides]
Witt, J. K. (2019). Graph construction: An empirical investigation on setting the range of the Y-Axis. Meta-Psychology, 3. https://par.nsf.gov/servlets/purl/10107678
Saar Hommes: [slides]
Tosyali, F., & Aktas, B. (2021). Does training analytical thinking decrease superstitious beliefs? Relationship between analytical thinking, intrinsic religiosity, and superstitious beliefs. Personality and Individual Differences, 183, 111122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2021.11112

January 18th,
2022

Sanne Willems: [slides]

Yang, B. W., Vargas Restrepo, C., Stanley, M. L., & Marsh, E. J. (2021). Truncating Bar Graphs Persistently Misleads Viewers. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 10(2), 298–311. 

Ruben Vromans: [slides]

Engelhardt, E. G., Pieterse, A. H., Han, P. K., van Duijn-Bakker, N., Cluitmans, F., Maartense, E., ... & Stiggelbout, A. M. (2017). Disclosing the uncertainty associated with prognostic estimates in breast cancer: current practices and patients’ perceptions of uncertainty. Medical Decision Making, 37(3), 179-192. 

December 7th,
2021
Winnifred Wijnker: 
TBA
Laura Verbeek:
Engzell, P., Frey, A., & Verhagen, M. D. (2021). Learning loss due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(17).
November 23, 2021

Rosa Fabbricatore: [slides]

Binder K, Krauss S and Bruckmaier G (2015) Effects of visualizing statistical information–an empirical study on tree diagrams and 2 × 2 tables. Front. Psychol.6:1186.
Ionica Smeets:
Li, N., & Molder, A. L. (2021). Can scientists use simple infographics to convince? Effects of the “flatten the curve” charts on perceptions of and behavioral intentions toward social distancing measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Public Understanding of Science, 30(7), 898–912.

November 9, 2021

Casper Albers:

Frans, N., Hummelen, B., Albers, C.J., Paap, M.C.S. (2021). Visualizing uncertainty to promote clinicians' understanding of measurement error.
Ionica Smeets:
TBA

October 26,
2021

Saar Hommes: [slides]
Hoffmann TC, Del Mar C, Santhirapala R, et al. Teaching clinicians shared decision making and risk communication online: an evaluation study. BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine 2021;26:253.
Anne Marthe van der Bles:
Jenkins, S. C., Harris, A. J. L., & Lark, R. M. (2018). Understanding ‘unlikely (20% likelihood)’ or ‘20% likelihood (unlikely)’ outcomes: the robustness of the extremity effect. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31(4), 572-586.

October 12,
2021

Marije Fagginger Auer: [slides]
Betsch , C., Haase, N., Renkewitz, F., & Schmid, P. (2015). The narrative bias revisited: What drives the biasing influence of narrative information on risk perceptions? Judgment and Decision Making, 10, 241-264 

Ruben Vromans: [slides]
- Fagerlin, A., Zikmund-Fisher, B. J., & Ubel, P. A. (2007). “If I’m better than average, then I’m ok?”: Comparative information influences beliefs about risk and benefits. Patient education and counseling, 69(1-3), 140-144. 
- Schwartz, P. H. (2016). Comparative Risk: Good or Bad Heuristic?. The American Journal of Bioethics, 16(5), 20-22. 

September 28,
2021

Cancelled

September 14, 2021
Winnifred Wijnker:
Cokely, E. T., Galesic, M., Schulz, E., Ghazal, S., & Garcia-Retamero, R. (2012). Measuring risk literacy: the berlin numeracy test. Judgment and Decision making.
Sanne Willems [slides]
Bruine de Bruin, W., & Carman, K. G. (2012). Measuring risk perceptions: what does the excessive use of 50% mean?. Medical decision making: an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 32(2), 232–236.

June 25, 2021

June 11, 2021
Anne Marthe van der Bles:
Dieckmann, Gregory, Peters & Hartmann, 2017 "Seeing What You Want to See: How Imprecise Uncertainty Ranges Enhance Motivated Reasoning"
Zsuzsa Bakk Bunga Citra Pratiwi:
Naik, G., Ahmed, H., & Edwards, A. G. (2012). Communicating risk to patients and the public. British Journal of General Practice, 62(597), 213-216.

May 28, 2021

May 14, 2021

Ascension Day

April 30, 2021

Nikky van Buuren:
Fischhoff B. Communicating about the risks of terrorism (or anything else). Am Psychol. 2011 Sep;66(6):520-31. doi: 10.1037/a0024570. PMID: 21823780.

Laura Verbeek Winnifred Wijnker:
Raschke, R. L., & Steinbart, P. J. (2008). Mitigating the effects of misleading graphs on decisions by educating users about the principles of graph design. Journal of Information Systems, 22(2), 23-52.

April 16, 2021

April 2, 2021

Good Friday

March 19, 2021

Ionca Smeets:
Romano, Alessandro, Sotis, Chiara, Dominioni, Goran, & Guidi, Sebastián. (2020). The scale of COVID‐19 graphs affects understanding, attitudes, and policy preferences. Health Economics, 29(11), 1482-1494.
Nynke Krol:
Porter, Theodore M. Trust in Numbers: The Pursuit of Objectivity in Science and Public Life. Princeton University Press, 1995. JSTOR

March 5, 2021

Winnifred Wijnker: 

Okan, Y., Galesic, M. & Garcia-Retamero, R. How People with Low and High Graph Literacy Process Health Graphs: Evidence from Eye-tracking: Graph Literacy and Health Graph Processing. J. Behav. Decis. Mak. 29, 271–294 (2016)

Sanne Willems: [slides]
Innumeracy in the Wild - Misunderstanding and Misusing Numbers, Ellen Peters (2020) – book, part 1 and 2